Wirelessnorth.ca

As being rapidly splashed across the internets, pricing for the Rogers iPhone have been revealed. There is some good news. It seems that the dictats of Steve have influenced global pricing on the iPhone as the Rogers plan closely matches that of AT&T.

The iPhone will cost you a data plan of $30 a month for “unlimited” (email, web) [ed - what about 3rd party apps?] or $45 a month for the enterprise email version. This is on top of a regular Rogers voice plan, system access fee etc. Basically this gibes with recent comments by Rogers President and COO Nadir Mohamed (and our own predictions) that the iPhone will cost the average customer about $90 a month. That’s not super cheap but it’s reasonable compared to the price of any blackberry plan.

As previously reported the iPhone will cost $199 up front (currency parity!) for the 8 GB version and $299 for the 16GB and extra color option(white). There’s also option for existing Rogers contract customers to upgrade to the iPhone. That’s the good news.

The bad news. Astonishingly, Rogers is only offering the phone on a 3-year contract. That’s 50% longer than AT&T (and anywhere else in the world) and twice as long as the 18 month contracts offered by O2 in the UK. For some reason, 3year contracts are legal in this country.

$199 + 36months x $90 = $3440 and that’s if you buy the cheap one. Don’t forget the GST/PST.

However, you’ll probably realize you are likely to spend at least that much on cellphone service in the next three years, no matter what your plan.

There’s no doubt the exclusive iPhone 3G is a coup for Rogers, and we can be sure they’ll be taking share from Bell and Telus not to mention locking-in a lot of Canadians just before more new competition arrives. Bell and Telus cannot offer the iPhone because their networks are not GSM. As far as we can tell the current iPhone 3G also does not support the AWS bands currently being auctioned in Canada. So the new entrants won’t get it either. That’s not to say though that future iPhone versions, and many other compelling handsets, won’t be hitting the AWS bands at least in the next 3 years.

There’s actually a whole bunch of really neat devices on a whole bunch of platforms already coming out in the next 3 to 9 months. But that’s a story for another post…

Bidders in Canada’s AWS auction are getting to down to the end of their bankrolls. Although each bidders holdings are zig-zagging every round, the one consistent pattern is that most of the bidders are capping out at a maximum amount they are willing to have on the table at one time. If we go back and look at each bidders maximum over the last several rounds and add these totals up, we have a good as guess as any as to how far the auction could go – before everyone hits their spending limits.

Here’s what the data looks like:

Highest sum of winning bids in recent rounds
 

Rogers    	   833
Telus     	   777
Bell      	   652
Quebecor  	   590
Globalive 	   562
data AV   	   238
Shaw      	   172
Tirabassi  	    49
MTS        	    48
Bragg      	    54
Sasktel    	    31
Novus      	    17
Blue Canada          8
Celuworld   	     1
Canquest 	     0
		_____
Total         4,033

Current Auction
Proceeds	3,822

At the present rate of auction pricing only increasing 6 Million a round it could take another 30 rounds for the auction to exhaust everyone’s budget. As the action gets closer to each bidder’s ceiling we are seeing more did withdrawals and waivers being used. The last few rounds have seen Globalive and Data AV for example withdrawing past winning bids in order to relocate funds to other places.

Chris Sorensen at The Star has the story that Rogers will be revamping their data pricing in time for the iPhone.

Mohamed said that wireless data pricing will “evolve” as Rogers subscribers begin using their phones for more than making voice calls – a trend expected to gain traction once Apple Inc.’s iPhone is made available to Canadians through Rogers on July 11….

“You will see more value in our pricing as we go forward,” Mohamed said today at a telecom conference in Toronto.

Rogers and other Canadian wireless operators have been criticized for charging subscribers some of the highest data rates in the developed world.

At WirelessNorth.ca we’re cautiously optimistic that Rogers is finally be at the cusp of embracing 21st century mobile trends. Rogers insiders have been whispering for a while that data pricing would be coming down when the time was right. Nonetheless we await to hear what exactly means “evolved” and “value”.

And then, in other news from “the more things change” department, the Star also reports that “While Rogers has yet to reveal how much it will cost Canadians to own an iPhone, executives have said they are not fans of unlimited plans such as those offered with the iPhone in the U.S. by AT&T Inc.”

We also know already that Rogers is also not a big fan of AT&T’s idea of “only” a 2-year contract either.

Someone wake us up when we’re ready to land? At about 10 Million dollars an hour (rounds now start on the hour, 8 a day) the spectrum auction keeps spiraling up into the heavens. And yet not much is actually happening as the bid increments are getting smaller at this stage. ‘A’ block though has some entertaining action. Rogers has shown they are pretty committed to keeping the whole of A block. Which has pretty much everyone (even Bell getting in on the action) in playing sport with them by taking pot shots at the block and forcing Rogers to spend more and more each round to buy it’s licenses back. Of anyone, Rogers looks to be carrying the most of the steadily growing total revenues. Which now risen to a lofty 3.7 Billion.

Quebecor and Globalive are still finding time to squabble over central Canadian licenses. You’d think by this point they’d have realized they have greater common enemies than each other. You might wonder why they don’t just call each other up and sort things out on the side. Maybe because that sort of behaviour is against the auction rules. Or maybe they just couldn’t afford the roaming minutes.

Even txt messages you know, are getting more expensive all the time.

The Spectrum auction rolls onwards. At this point the hands are pretty much clear, but some players just don’t seem to sit still. Total auction proceeds are growing very slowly now nonetheless lots of little licenses are flip-flopping as several of the new entrants can’t seem to figure out how to divide a pie amicably. Ottawa of all places is battleground as it sits astride anyone trying to consolidate either Ontario or Quebec. Ottawa is now the most expensive spectrum per capita.

As you can see from the converging de-squigglyness (in erudite statistical terminology that is) that we are eventually approaching some kind of resolution. Meanwhile… Industry Canada has just posted the auction round schedule for all next week. The auction will end only when there are no new bids and no bid withdrawals in a round.

Here’s the update on our pretty picture.

Two horror stories, this time it’s courtesy of Bell. Customers stunned by massive phone bills

…customers have been left reeling, and fuming, after receiving cellphone bills from Bell Canada for tens of thousands of dollars even though they believed they had “unlimited” Internet access on the devices. Khalil Haddad, owner of an Ottawa salon, was charged $10,342 last month after his son used his phone to surf the Web. Jennifer Rundle, an Ottawa hairstylist and student, was sent a $24,791 bill for similar reasons. Both thought they were paying an extra fee for unlimited Internet access…

What’s the worst you’ve seen on a Canadian phone bill? We spoke with one aquaintance recently, a busy independent consultant who traveling at least once a month between cthe US and Canada. She was proud, almost boasting in fact that by juggling plans and curtailing roaming as much as possible, she’d finally gotten her personal blackberry bill down to less than $750 a month.

Our wireless industry is a heck of a tax on growing a business in Canada.

Are they drunk? Despite 60 new bids on other licences, the auction took a step back in total revenue this morning in round 44 as Quebecor withdrew, once again, a $97M for 35d, 10Mhz in the Toronto Area in round 44. As we reported, Quebecor placed this $97M bid on 35d in round 41 after withdrawing their bid of $97M in round 37 which they had placed earlier. In 46, they just bought it back. again. For 97Million.

What looks to be happening is that each of the bidders, especially entrants, appear to have a fixed budget each are trying to crowd as many good licences under as they can. The bidding chart looks like tick tock as bidders hand back and forth blocks of spectrum each time a little more expensive than the last.

The Canadian AWS spectrum at very nearly 3.5B is already selling for 2 to 6 times as high as the US AWS.

Why so much? Canada is seen by outsiders as an attractive market with low (by global standards) wireless penetration, relatively low competitive environment with high a price umbrella and “straightforward” (read lax) regulatory environment.

Another dangerous possibility is a phenomenon called winner’s curse.

Quebecor is out of Toronto. After showing some spark in Ontario, Quebecor has made a surprising move. They’ve withdrawn a 97Million dollar bid on their 10MHz D-block over Toronto. It seems their feint against Telus yesterday was to see if they could hold a block in E for the same price. But it seems the price was too rich. At wirelessnorth.ca we are somewhat disappointed by Quebecor’s apparent retreat. Of all the new entrants, they have been the most vocal about becoming a disruptive influence on the industry especially with regard to open networks and open data. Perhaps only our friends now in Quebec will get to find out what that promise means.

With Shaw and Quebecor now sticking to their regional corners, it looks like Globalive and Data AV are the last in the race for stitching together a new National network. Globalive is by far the stronger, currently holding 511M worth in standing high bids, and Data AV 210M.

No one has yet stepped up to take over Quebecor’s withdrawn bid on Toronto. And if no one does soon they may not have the eligibility points (or the cash left at this stage) to do so and, paradoxically, a slice of the most valuable per-capita spectrum in Canada could go vacant.

UPDATE: huzzah, Round 41 and Quebecor is back in the running for the full 96M of licence number 37 of D block covering 10MHz Toronto. It’s not a huge width of spectrum, but good to see a third new entrant remaining a player in Canada’s most populous city. No word yet on what they were thinking. Why withdraw in round 37 and leave it fallow for 4 rounds before reentering? A funny gambit that is. With that re-infusion auction proceeds now approaching 3.4B.

Great news the new 3G iPhone is live on Apple Canada online store. The catch? you can’t get one until (at least) July 11th and the device isn’t listed with any price. Seems like those slow production problem rumours were true. As of this moment, Rogers has yet to issue a press release with further details. Steve swears that the entry price will be no higher, anywhere on the planet, than 199US (that’s pretty cheap, nokia & blackberry look out). Paying no attention of course to what the obligatory contract will cost you over the length (cough) of the contract. The apple.ca store has also in recent times had some pretty curious ideas about how much 1 US dollar converts to in CAD these days. So 199USD could mean $209 or $219CAD

The biggest news with the new iPhone? it’s thinner, it’s faster, it’s (claimed) to have better battery life, it has pretty cool looking geolocation features … and … it’s all about killer 3rd party apps. Some pretty cool ones too.

Let us say this again: It’s all about killer 3rd party apps.

Is it finally time for Canadian carriers to wake up and smell the future?

UPDATE: More good news: Rogers and Apple Canada will be sticking to 199, 299 pricing. The bad: Why would they quible over entry price when the contract length is 3 long years (specific contract pricing is still unknown, however, guaranteed it will be $3,000+ over 3 years, and… iPhone 5.0 will be out by the time your contract is). The ugly: Availbility is still a big question mark. The apple site is suggesting you may have to buy the phone in-store. You may be in for nintendo wii-like shortages and chasing for stock around the city. Thanks to all wrote in with PR links!

Spectrum bidders are back at it and bushy-tailed this morning with flurry of bidding activity in rounds 35 and 36. Rogers is having a tough time playing whack-a-mole in A block this morning fighting off incursions from various entrants and even Telus. Globalive and Quebecor have meanwhile gotten excited about playing an expensive game of tug-of-war over a mess of licences covering eastern Ontario and southern Quebec all the while with Data AV not making it easy for them either. Shaw and Sasktel seem to have a running disagreement over who rightfully should own saskatchewan this morning, while Bragg and Bell are duking it out in the East. So, it aint all settled yet.

In round 35 Quebecor also put in a surprise bid 95M for “35e” an extra 10MHz in Toronto that had been in Telus’ hands for days. It’s seems Quebecor may be committed to holding at least 20MHz in Toronto and 30-40 in Montreal at any cost. Telus won back 35e for 103M in round 36, but round 37 is only a few minutes away…

Total auction proceeds should cross 3.25 B next round.

Meanwhile, everyone else will be watching WWDC.