You can’t help yourself, you will get an iPhone

July 3rd, 2008You can’t help yourself, you will get an iPhone

This is you, in line, waiting. Think about it, it will only cost you $100 a month, perhaps a bit more.

Real web browsing, fancy and flashy piece of hardware, decent TXT plan, a little upgrade for Caller ID, and VoiceMail is baked in and finger-mashable.

Let’s be honest here. Most of you are not like me. I am a cheap tight-wad who would never spend $100 a month on his cellphone bill. My guess is that you aren’t like that though. Most of you are already spending $100 and you just smile when Ted Rogers pulls up in the Brinks truck to pick up your payment.

I’ll be honest with you: Despite all the talk, I think that most people are full of shit. They’ll all be there, July 11th, credit card in hand, pen ready to sign on the dotted line.

I have had an iPhone since September 2007. I was pretty excited about it at first. It was brand new, I was one of the first people I knew to have one, especially in Canada, and man,. that screen is just so crisp.

I can, however, promise you that despite what I thought, the iPhone does not really change your life in any significant way. Sure, I would take one if Rogers were to put it on my desk tomorrow, I might even get excited about it all over again, but it still wouldn’t change much.

The thing I LOVE about the iPhone is the built in iPod. I listen to a lot more music while I am out of the house now because of it, and I really enjoy that. Most phone have MP3 playing abilities, but none compares to the iPhone/iPod combination.

At some point, the decision about the iPhone isn’t one about whether Rogers wants to charge you 30$ more a month, or whether 400mb really is enough or not. The truth is, this is a decision you made a long time ago, and hate Rogers or not, your decision really isn’t about them, it is about you.

So be honest with yourself. Isn’t this something you want? You know you can afford it. Just end the emotional roller coaster now and admit it.

Or not.

For a lot of you, I think you are exhausted. This has been a bit of an odd consumerist roller coaster and we’ll all be happier when it is over. With only a few minor changes to the plans and pricing, Rogers could have created legions of iPhone worshiping fanboys. The sort of legion of GSM loving, iPhone addicted customer who would unashamedly have preached the virtues of the iPhone and Rogers pricing to their friends and family.

Rogers, whose stock has fallen along with some pretty heavy trading volumes since the announcement of the iPhone plan pricing, has demonstrated how dedicated they are to eschewing American-style pricing and volume-based revenue growth. This will put them at high risk during any significant economic downturn which hits their core ARPU-raising demographic.

If 30,000 customers stay away from the iPhone like they say they will, then this is going to be a huge lost opportunity for Rogers to diversify their data-buying market segment. If, on the other hand, the iPhone is a wild success in Canada, then Rogers will have the proof and the reasoning they need to continue to drive data pricing based on scarcity.

With Bell making one of the most pathetic counter-iPhone efforts imaginable (it is like a bad joke. I mean, seriously, are they all drunk?) I think Rogers has more than enough time to figure this out. Nobody is going to rock the boat. Nobody.

kashif

If I had to buy a cell, I would get an iPhone. Too bad my work already provides me with a blackberry.

$100 a month/$1200 a year is too much for a cell phone. For that price I could save up for a slick home theatre system. A cell phone around $30 to $60 a month is more in my comfort zone. $80-$100 is way too much for a single device that only makes calls, plays music, and has a fancy GUI.

Amber

Honestly, I can avoid buying it, no matter how sexy and flirtatious the iPhone is. I can afford to buy it, and pay the outrageous monthly prices Rogers is 'offering', but I will not do it. It's like ripping up your money and burning it. You CAN do it, but you bloody well shouldn't.

Deep down, I hope that most people boycott/choose common sense over flash and Rogers has to develop a better pricing structure - because at that very moment I WILL buy one. But I won't let myself until that point, even if it never happens.

digitatodd

I agree, people will be lined up at the Rogers outlets ready to get their iPhones regardless of the price. It would be really nice if those 30,000 people followed through and didn't sign up. I for one would love to see the look on the Rogers corporate faces when there were no people lined up in the stores.

Sharp

I think the chart must be updated as the Rogers' shares gained > 3% today..

Jevon

Meh, I think I'll leave it. I wrote the post yesterday.

Fred Brunel

I have an iPhone 2G (jailbroken) that I unfortunely dropped on the floor, cracking the screen. I'd love to get a new one but seriously having done some math on Rogers plans it's just plain robbery.

My best chance would be to fix my iPhone screen, wait for the 2.0 jailbreak (ziphone) so I could install apps and I'll be all set. For developping, I would just buy an iPod touch (ok, wihout cam and gps, nothing is perfect).

Christian

Honestly, I can't understand why the marginal ( though apparently magical?) cachet of the iPhone is really worth all the extra cash and contract hassle people are willing to shell out for it. I also can't understand the speed with which some might dismiss the Instinct offer - it's not perfect, but it's reasonable. The iPhone may be sexy, but not 3 years and $100+dollars a month (+data overage charges) sexy. Then again, I still own a basement full of records, so maybe I'm not part of Roger's target market (which in this case appears to include the vanity-crazed, cash-laden, mentally unstable and impulse buyers amongst others).

When the hoax/AT&T pricing appeared, I'll admit I considered the offer - after all, it's in the range of my current monthly bill (I pay $90-120/m for a regular Samsung clamshell handset and don't do a lot of data usage on it), so why wouldn't I get more for the same $, but the real pricing/terms are just not attractive for me - not enough to merit the annoyance of moving providers, signing a new contract, cancelling an old one, new phone, blah blah...

Anyhow, I'm coming up to the end of a contract - I'm going to call Bell in August and see if they're willing to sweeten the pot a bit, and I might take an Instinct and renew for 1-2 years until new AWS entrants will come to market. Yeah, the iPhone's nice and all, but really, I just need a reliable, useful phone, not an iconic fashion accessory - especially at marquee rates & extortionary terms.

May C

Seriously folks, if Canadian flock to the iPhone regardless of the 3 year jail sentence, unbelievably outrageous plans with piddly squat data limits plus that fattening System Access Fee, emergency dialing fee, Call display, and whatever other great "feature" add ons you tack on, you may as well wheelbarrow all your money over to Ted Rogers.

Come on. Can we show the world that we won't get shafted? This is ridiculous. I hope the iPhone flops in Canada big time so Ted will have to do something to make it somewhat reasonable.

Andrew

Or at the very least hold off until Monday the 14th, if for no other reason than to give 'em a scare :->

James

Jevon, I've been an Apple addict for 23 years and owned over 25 Macs to date. I can tell you, there is no way I'm signing a 3-year contract with Rogers and no way I'm owning the 2nd-generation iPhone. It's two-pronged for me. #1, Rogers data plans are prohibitive and outrageous, and at least if I could go month-to-month (which I'm doing now with my N95), while still intolerable, it would give me some feeling of flexibility that should prices go down / get more competitive, I could do something about it. Locking me in for 3-years is a non-starter. #2, aside from the Rogers fleecing, the iPhone itself still has a ways to go before I consider owning one. The optics are just not good enough yet. Without a 4-5 megapixel camera and the ability to take quality video, the iPhone is still not the multimedia device that the Nokia N95 already is. So the combination of Rogers price-gouging and a still immature iPhone, leaves me on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. Don't get me wrong, I'm going to be an iPhone owner at some point. But that could still be 2-4 years away, I guess.

jrodgers

I am staying away... been with Fido since 2000 with two phone numbers and didn't get the data plan back then even though I thought I did (stupid on my part). I have been given loads of incentives over the years to stay and never entered a contract with them. I won't be getting a contract on July 11th -- two years, maybe, one year, no problem.

The only hope is that the press coverage has reached the mindless parent that will pay whatever to give their teenage son/daughter the device they demand. Hopefully they have already been burned by those contracts when the phone was stolen or broken. I doubt it though... loads will line up, loads will enjoy it. The real damage may come when people start *using* the data and blowing through the data caps forcing them to shut off the 3G data and reducing their iPhone to an iTouch with a contract.

Rogers is betting that doesn't happen. I would imagine they have a load of home broadband stats that back that up. They are pricing things to keep the 'bandwidth hogs' at bay which they know full well won't effect over 80% of their customers. What will push it over the top is iTunes purchases, youtube, and whatever apps appear. MobileMe might be a problem as well.

PR wise, if people generally don't use all that data on home broadband, why did they not just offer unlimited?

Stewart Marshall

The "unlimited" thing is interesting. I was reading that there is no way to track your data usage on an iPhone - is this true? The question is whether 400MB is enough - depends what you want to do, if it's a majority of say email and feed reading it will probably be fine. For me understanding this is important. However, if I decide 400 is enough that doesn't automatically mean I'll get one.

This link was an interesting option: http://www.ianbell.com/2008/07/03/rogers-commun...

Dan

I was 100% certain I would get one and have been waiting with baited breath for it to arrive. I have been preparing my spouse for the fact that i would be spending a lot of money on one and had already started buying iPhone compatible accessories (including a $100 Belkin FM transmitter) and had also almost given away my iPod touch. I am an Apple junkie, a gadget nerd and have decent disposable income. If I am not the perfect demographic for the iPhone then I don't know who is and I am NOT going to be getting the iPhone until they offer decent plans that include "unlimited" data.

Grandy

Same here... I have iMac, macbook, airport extreme, iPod. From just after the US launch, I told my wife that I would be getting an iPhone as soon as I could get one on a "proper" plan (one that allowed me to fully enjoy the iPhone). I wasn't prepared to use an "unlocked" version (that many of my coworkers were doing). I told my wife it might get expensive. So, even though the iPhone will be available, it doesn't fit my definition of a "proper" plan. I'm not as stupid as I look.

Graham Fair

I'm one of those people that apparently made up my mind a long time ago and, therefore, haven't changed. Except I have. The iPhone is a step up from my Moto ROKR. The screen is about six times bigger, it has a camera, it's a multimedia device. It will let me maintain an interface to the Internet that more closely resembles my interface at home than any other phone I've ever owned. I could buy one on July 11, wait a month till my Fido plan expires and then get one, or never get one.

I'm not buying it. I recently decided, after weeks of assessment, that the iPhone would be a good fit in my plans. Then I saw Rogers' pricing. I refuse to be a brainless stooge. I want the iPhone, not the Rogers. Rogers' plans FORCE you to factor that company into your buying decision and that is working out BAD for them. Rogers is forcing you to look at: 3 years, a reputation for bad service and all kinds of fees and charges.

Classic example of what's happening with the petition - since the ruinediphone.com petition site went live, I've always been the one talking up the petition and Rogers' poor-value plans at work. Today, thanks to the Report on Business / Globe & Mail article, EVERYONE on my team was talking. Of four people that want the iPhone and can do anything to get one if they want, NONE of them are buying. None of them are on the petition list, either.

What began with international media coverage over a Canadian long weekend has resulted in a lot of domestic media coverage all at once, in the days after the long weekend, and I'm seeing an outright explosion of signatures, awareness, discussion, and people changing their minds.

Robert

I agree, people will still line up in front of apple and roger stores with bags of their hard earned cash. Line up and pay to get raped.

Even if no one buys the iPhone, Rogers won't feel bad for the lost opportunity. If they provided a cheap iphone plan, it would have set a price boundary on future phones, effectively cutting into potentially fat data revenues. And that just goes against their company mission statement of double digit revenue growth.

I waited for a year, so i don't mind waiting for another few months to let the hype cool down and some people other than aapl to spec it. For now, i'm taping my ipod touch to my phone.

Jevon

Hah,. I like that idea,. the sort of Red Green version of the iphone.

Duct tape anyone?

Ivan Canarus

Falks:

Could you imaging the Network with totally legal content ? I have prepared presentation for you:
http://www.slideshare.net/ishmelev/national-ser...

midtoad

@heri: how do you propose to buy the iPhone on a 1-year contract? Rogers has only said they'll sell it with a 3-year jail sentence.

midtoad

@Jevon, what's so pathetic about the Samsung Instinct? Please elaborate. Personally I think Bell has a great effort here. Let's start at the top: NO CONTRACT (if you want that). I refuse to accede to a Rogers 3-year jail sentence, since our industry will be much changed in 3 years. Secondly: $10 for unlimited browsing! I believe many people will buy the Instinct on these two points alone.

Sportyboard

I've got to agree with midtoad. Isn't Bell offering exactly what people are demanding from Rogers - an affordable unlimited data option?

Don't get me wrong, I think Rogers is gouging Canadian wireless users, but it seems some people won't be satisfied until $20 gets you unlimited talk, data, text, and a free deep tissue massage every day when you come home from work.

Jevon

This is NOT unlimited data,. Bell is very clear about that,. this is unlimited web browsing through the browser they provide. Same as the HTC deal, just more expensive.

Robert

This plan is a marketing ploy. Imagine paying extra for IM or P2P traffic on your home internet. Its a joke.

Jevon

The HTC touch was all this a long time ago. This is not a new plan, it is MORE EXPENSIVE than the 7$ plan they were offering with the touch. That is what I think is pathetic. Nothing new or creative to compete, just a price bump and a device from a new maker (a device that nobody cares about to boot)

dgc

sorry, just have a few facts to clarify.

1. you quote/link the nyse rogers stock chart. the stock barely trades there. on the tsx, it has about 10x the volume.
2. rogers stock has not been affected by an online petition. investors are smarter than that. its stock has been affected by the near-$1-billion it will spend on spectrum.
3. the petitioners are not all canadian. and i bet some petitioners will get an iphone anyways.
4. for the next year or so, rogers is the only gsm game in town. things change in a year. new entrant might make rogers go unlimited by then, at a time where it will continue to lead in market share anyways.

Jevon

I think saying you are clarifying facts here is being a little generous. I appreciate the comment,. I do,. but I figure I will respond, at the risk of sounding like an asshole.

1- Sure,. the numbers have looked similar on both markets.
2- I did not make a link between the petition and the stock market. I just pointed out that it has dropped since they announced the iphone plans. If only an online petition had that influence.
3- my point exactly. ... oi.
4- New entrants will not be live in that short a time span. This is irrelevant to my post.

Andrew

I want to know why you think a new entrant will not be live in that time frame. Regardless of what new spectrum has been purchased, it has already been outlined by Jim Prentice and Industry Canada that new entrants will be able to piggyback on existing infrastructure for free WHILE they are actively building their own network. So we could see a new entrant in the works as early as 1Q 2009 in some areas.

heri

i would have gotten one even if the plan was $200 per month.

the only thing that crosses the line for me is the 3-year contract.

so yeah, I'll get the iPhone, with a standard voice plan, for 1 year.

for data & web, I'll improvise

Jevon

I think a lot of people feel this way, 3-years is just so painful, and I think a lot of people have memories of signing 36 month contracts and wanting to go to a new plan or carrier in the last 12 months, but being stuck.

Nut

Rogers have backtracked, and I understand that existing Rogers Wireless customers will be able to add just a Data Plan to their existing voice plans. I think this helps slightly in dealing with the pathetic voice part of their advertised plans for the iPhone.

Wirelessnorth.ca

July 3rd, 2008You can’t help yourself, you will get an iPhone

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